Donetsk, Sep 7 - DAN. The Ukrainian society will face a deep political and economic crisis if Kiev rejects the Minsk accords, head of the Political Science Department at Donetsk National University Artyom Bobrovsky said at a round table discussion here on Tuesday.
“A review of situation scenarios is a method that provides the opportunity to understand the essence of possible upcoming events, especially in the conditions of geopolitical turbulence,” Bobrovsky said. “A study of possible alternatives of the development of the situation can help the Ukrainian leadership to rethink the current policy. However, things are going towards the worst case scenario. Ukraine will find itself in the deepest crisis.”
No matter what, Washington continues to provide minimum military assistance to Kiev to maintain the simmering conflict, a buffer zone to counterbalance “the Russian influence in Europe,” he said.
“Disintegration of Ukraine will become a matter of time. The politics based on oligarch’s personal ties and corruption in Kiev will weaken the government and law in many regions and lead to complete loss of control over the whole territory. The situation is exacerbated by the economic crisis and a split in the society with radicalization of the opposing identities,” the expert said.
He expressed confidence that a violation of minorities 'rights in the west of the country would strengthen the centrifugal trends. Kiev may pass the protection of law and order in many regions to volunteer battalions. As a result, a military coup might happen in Ukraine and a new political course will be adopted.
The Agreements dated September 5 and 20, 2014 and February 12, 2015 forged by the Contact Group in Minsk make groundwork for a peaceful settlement of the Donbass conflict. The Contact Group set forth a peace plan and agreed a ceasefire, then adopted the Memorandum on ceasefire implementation and later on the Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements. It envisioned immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in Donbass, withdrawal of heavy weapons, establishment of security zones, discussion of the modalities for the resumption of payment of pensions and allowances to DPR and LPR citizens, and constitutional reform in Ukraine which should result in deep decentralisation. Nothing has been implemented over more than six years of negotiations.*jk